Paris FC 4–3 Stade Rennais FC 1901

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC · referee: Bastien Dechepy (48 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

4–3 · hit · surprise: 0.81 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

45%1 · Paris FC≈ 1 in 2.24

25%X≈ 1 in 3.95

30%2 · Stade Rennais≈ 1 in 3.34

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 10 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 12 from their last 5. The away side travel roughly 310 km. The model estimates 45% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position6 vs 4

Elo rating1523 vs 1560

Last 5WWDWL homeWWWLW away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 63%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Paris FC	Stade Rennais	League
League position	6th of 18 · 11 pts	4th of 18 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1523	1560	—
Last 5	WWDWL	WWWLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	63%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	1.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.8	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	50%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	8 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	9 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 65% · league 37%

Paris FCStade Rennaisleague, year before the match · n = 300

	Paris FC	league	Stade Rennais
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	37%224 of 60034–41%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	72%434 of 60069–76%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%164 of 30049–60%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	53%159 of 30047–59%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	72%434 of 60069–76%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	30%179 of 59826–34%	50%10 of 2030–70%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 12

Paris FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:4goals

Stade Rennais · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWLW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

10:8goals

Paris FC · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWDW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

11:2goals

Stade Rennais · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

8:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 10 vs 7 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Paris FC	Stade Rennais
Points (of 15)	7 → 10 ▲	7 → 12 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.6 ▲	1.8 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 0.8 =	2.2 → 1.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1594 (4 of 5) → 1536 easier opponents	1554 → 1512 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+13 (1523)	+10 (1560)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Paris FC	Stade Rennais
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	6 (11 pts)	4 (13 pts)
points off 1st	3	1
points off top 4	2	in top 4
points above bottom 3	5	7
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Liam Rosenior since 7 Jul 2026 · 6 matches	Franck Haise since 18 Feb 2026 · 18 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 310 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 9 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Paris FC 0-0-2 (n = 2)

	home		away
10 May 2026	Stade Rennais	2–1	Paris FC
7 Nov 2025	Paris FC	0–1	Stade Rennais

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Show

No streak of 3+ matches.

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%