Olympique Lyonnais 2–1 OGC Nice

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: François Letexier (51 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.46 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

63%1 · Olympique Lyon≈ 1 in 1.58

22%X≈ 1 in 4.57

15%2 · Nice≈ 1 in 6.76

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 8 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 7 from their last 5. The home side last played 9 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 63% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position5 vs 11

Elo rating1584 vs 1494

Last 5DWDWL homeLDLWW away

Rest days9 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 12% · 2–0: 12% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Olympique Lyon	Nice	League
League position	5th of 18 · 11 pts	11th of 18 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1584	1494	—
Last 5	DWDWL	LDLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	37%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.9	0.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	67%	27%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	55%
Days of rest	9	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 15% · league 38%

Olympique LyonNiceleague, year before the match · n = 302

	Olympique Lyon	league	Nice
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	38%227 of 60434–42%	15%3 of 205–36%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%437 of 60469–76%	50%10 of 2030–70%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	55%166 of 30249–60%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	53%160 of 30247–59%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	72%437 of 60469–76%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	30%181 of 60227–34%	10%2 of 203–30%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 8 vs 7

Olympique Lyon · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWDWL

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

9:4goals

Nice · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

5:7goals

Olympique Lyon · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLDWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

12:8goals

Nice · Last 5 away n = 5

DDLLL

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

2:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 8 vs 4 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Olympique Lyon	Nice
Points (of 15)	9 → 8 ▼	4 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 1.8 ▼	0.6 → 1.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 0.8 ▼	0.8 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1520 → 1512 easier opponents	1494 → 1524 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1584)	−1 (1494)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 9 vs 7

	Olympique Lyon	Nice
days since last match	9	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	5 (11 pts)	11 (8 pts)
points off 1st	3	6
points off top 4	2	5
points above bottom 3	5	2
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Paulo Fonseca since 31 Jan 2025 · 55 matches	Olivier Pantaloni since 17 Jun 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 290 km
weather at kick-off	10 °C · 0.0 mm · 6 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Olympique Lyon 4-0-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
15 Feb 2026	Olympique Lyon	2–0	Nice
18 Oct 2025	Nice	3–2	Olympique Lyon
9 Mar 2025	Nice	0–2	Olympique Lyon
1 Dec 2024	Olympique Lyon	4–1	Nice
16 Feb 2024	Olympique Lyon	1–0	Nice

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

OGC Nice · conceding: 5

		now	longest in our database
OGC Nice	conceding	5	10

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%