OGC Nice 2–1 RC Strasbourg Alsace

Ligue 1 · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Jérémie Pignard (55 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · miss · surprise: 1.19 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

30%1 · Nice≈ 1 in 3.30

25%X≈ 1 in 4.05

45%2 · Strasbourg≈ 1 in 2.22

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 4 matches. The away side travel roughly 540 km. The model estimates 45% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position15 vs 10

Elo rating1489 vs 1549

Last 5DLDLW homeLWWDL away

Rest days20 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 1–2: 9% · 0–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 30% vs 57%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Nice	Strasbourg	League
League position	15th of 18 · 5 pts	10th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1489	1549	—
Last 5	DLDLW	LWWDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	30%	57%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.6	2.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.0	2.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	33%	50%	53% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	9 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	3 of 10	8 of 10	54%
Days of rest	20	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 10% vs 40% · league 37%

NiceStrasbourgleague, year before the match · n = 294

	Nice	league	Strasbourg
Winswon the match	10%2 of 203–30%	37%218 of 58833–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	50%10 of 2030–70%	72%424 of 58868–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	54%160 of 29449–60%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	53%155 of 29447–58%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	72%424 of 58868–76%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	10%2 of 203–30%	30%177 of 58627–34%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Nice · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLDLW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:6goals

Strasbourg · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWDL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:10goals

Nice · Last 5 at home n = 5

DDDDW

7pts

1-4-0W-D-L

4:3goals

Strasbourg · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 5 vs 10 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Nice	Strasbourg
Points (of 15)	4 → 5 ▲	10 → 7 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.6 → 0.6 =	2.4 → 2.0 ▼
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 1.2 ▲	2.0 → 2.0 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1518 → 1509 easier opponents	1497 → 1559 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−8 (1489)	+3 (1549)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 21

	Nice	Strasbourg
days since last match	20	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	15 (5 pts)	10 (7 pts)
points off 1st	9	7
points off top 4	6	4
points above bottom 3	1	3
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Olivier Pantaloni since 17 Jun 2026 · 5 matches	Hugo Oliveira since 15 Jul 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 540 km
weather at kick-off	23 °C · 0.0 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Nice 2-2-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
4 Apr 2026	Strasbourg	3–1	Nice
3 Jan 2026	Nice	1–1	Strasbourg
12 Apr 2025	Strasbourg	2–2	Nice
24 Nov 2024	Nice	2–1	Strasbourg
28 Apr 2024	Strasbourg	1–3	Nice

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

OGC Nice · conceding: 4

		now	longest in our database
OGC Nice	conceding	4	10
RC Strasbourg Alsace	scoring	4	16
RC Strasbourg Alsace	conceding	13	15
RC Strasbourg Alsace	both teams score	4	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%