FC Lorient 1–0 AS Monaco FC

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC · referee: Marc Bollengier (51 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–0 · miss · surprise: 1.06 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

34%1 · Lorient≈ 1 in 2.90

26%X≈ 1 in 3.80

39%2 · Monaco≈ 1 in 2.55

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 7 matches. The away side travel roughly 950 km. The model estimates 39% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position10 vs 1

Elo rating1478 vs 1596

Last 5LWDLW homeWWDWD away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–2: 9% · 0–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 60%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lorient	Monaco	League
League position	10th of 18 · 8 pts	1st of 18 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1478	1596	—
Last 5	LWDLW	WWDWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	60%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	67%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 60% · league 37%

LorientMonacoleague, year before the match · n = 300

	Lorient	league	Monaco
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	37%224 of 60034–41%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	72%434 of 60069–76%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	55%164 of 30049–60%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	53%159 of 30047–59%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	72%434 of 60069–76%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%179 of 59826–34%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 11

Lorient · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:6goals

Monaco · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDWD

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

9:5goals

Lorient · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLDW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:9goals

Monaco · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWWD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:8goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 7 vs 7 → 11

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lorient	Monaco
Points (of 15)	5 → 7 ▲	7 → 11 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.2 ▼	1.8 → 1.8 =
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.2 ▼	1.8 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1510 → 1522 tougher opponents	1487 → 1586 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+2 (1478)	+16 (1596)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Lorient	Monaco
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	10 (8 pts)	1 (14 pts)
points off 1st	6	0
points off top 4	5	in top 4
points above bottom 3	2	8
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Alexandre Dujeux since 9 Jun 2026 · 6 matches	Filipe Luís since 6 Jul 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 950 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.0 mm · 20 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lorient 2-2-0 (n = 4)

	home		away
16 Jan 2026	Monaco	1–3	Lorient
27 Sep 2025	Lorient	3–1	Monaco
17 Mar 2024	Monaco	2–2	Lorient
17 Sep 2023	Lorient	2–2	Monaco

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

FC Lorient · scoring: 5

		now	longest in our database
FC Lorient	scoring	5	5
AS Monaco FC	unbeaten	6	11
AS Monaco FC	scoring	7	17
AS Monaco FC	conceding	4	9
AS Monaco FC	both teams score	4	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%