US Lecce – Genoa CFC

Serie A · Matchday 10 · 1 Nov 2026 17:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

29%1 · Lecce≈ 1 in 3.40

31%X≈ 1 in 3.19

39%2 · Genoa≈ 1 in 2.55

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side took 6 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 4 from their last 5. The away side travel roughly 880 km. The model estimates 39% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 2.

League position12 vs 17

Elo rating1422 vs 1452

Last 5LWLLW homeLDLWL away

Rest days2 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 15% · 0–0: 14% · 1–1: 14%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	14%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 50% vs 17%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lecce	Genoa	League
League position	12th of 20 · 9 pts	17th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1422	1452	—
Last 5	LWLLW	LDLWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	50%	17%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	0.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	27%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	5 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	50%
Days of rest	2	3	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.33 vs 0.33

	Lecce at home	Genoa away
matches	3	3
scored / match	1.33league 1.59	0.33league 1.41
conceded / match	2.67league 1.41	1.67league 1.59
both scored	67%2 of 3 · league 57%	33%1 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	100%3 of 3 · league 60%	33%1 of 3 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 23%	0%0 of 3 · league 21%
failed to score	33%1 of 3 · league 21%	67%2 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 30% · league 39%

LecceGenoaleague, year before the match · n = 364

	Lecce	league	Genoa
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	39%283 of 72835–42%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	70%512 of 72867–74%	50%10 of 2030–70%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	50%182 of 36445–55%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	47%172 of 36442–52%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%512 of 72867–74%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	29%209 of 72826–32%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 4

Lecce · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:8goals

Genoa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Lecce · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

5:9goals

Genoa · Last 5 away n = 5

DLLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

1:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 6 vs 1 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lecce	Genoa
Points (of 15)	9 → 6 ▼	1 → 4 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.4 ▲	0.2 → 1.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.6 ▲	1.2 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1530 → 1484 easier opponents	1544 → 1533 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1422)	−10 (1452)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 2 vs 3

	Lecce	Genoa
days since last match	2	3
matches in last 7 days	2	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	12 (9 pts)	17 (4 pts)
points off 1st	13	18
points off top 4	8	13
points above bottom 3	5	0
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	33 pp	33 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Eusebio Di Francesco since 26 Jun 2025 · 45 matches	Daniele De Rossi since 6 Nov 2025 · 35 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 880 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lecce 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
24 May 2026	Lecce	1–0	Genoa
23 Aug 2025	Genoa	0–0	Lecce
14 Mar 2025	Genoa	2–1	Lecce
5 Jan 2025	Lecce	0–0	Genoa
28 Jan 2024	Genoa	2–1	Lecce

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

US Lecce · 3+ goals: 4

		now	longest in our database
US Lecce	3+ goals	4	4
Genoa CFC	conceding	9	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	14%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	14%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	14%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%