Le Havre AC – Paris Saint-Germain FC

Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · 30 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

12%1 · Le Havre≈ 1 in 8.67

20%X≈ 1 in 4.95

68%2 · PSG≈ 1 in 1.46

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side have scored in each of their last 27 matches. The home side last played 5 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 68% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position18 vs 2

Elo rating1413 vs 1719

Last 5LDLLL homeLWWWW away

Rest days5 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–2: 13% · 0–1: 12% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 20% vs 67%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Le Havre	PSG	League
League position	18th of 18 · 2 pts	2nd of 18 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1413	1719	—
Last 5	LDLLL	LWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	20%	67%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.8	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	23%	77%	52% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	3 of 10	7 of 10	54%
Days of rest	5	3	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 5

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.50 vs 2.00

	Le Havre at home	PSG away
matches	4	5
scored / match	0.50league 1.63	2.00league 1.42
conceded / match	1.50league 1.42	1.20league 1.63
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 65%	80%4 of 5 · league 65%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 65%	80%4 of 5 · league 65%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 23%	20%1 of 5 · league 18%
failed to score	50%2 of 4 · league 18%	0%0 of 5 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 10% vs 60% · league 38%

Le HavrePSGleague, year before the match · n = 281

	Le Havre	league	PSG
Winswon the match	10%2 of 203–30%	38%212 of 56234–42%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	72%405 of 56268–76%	100%20 of 2084–100%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	54%153 of 28149–60%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	53%149 of 28147–59%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	72%405 of 56268–76%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	10%2 of 203–30%	31%172 of 56027–35%	50%10 of 2030–70%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 1 vs 12

Le Havre · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

4:9goals

PSG · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

10:5goals

Le Havre · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLDL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

2:7goals

PSG · Last 5 away n = 5

DDWWW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

10:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 1 vs 8 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Le Havre	PSG
Points (of 15)	5 → 1 ▼	8 → 12 ▲
Goals scored per match	0.8 → 0.8 =	1.6 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 1.8 ▲	1.2 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1561 → 1497 easier opponents	1547 → 1540 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−19 (1413)	+7 (1719)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 5 vs 3

	Le Havre	PSG
days since last match	5	3
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	3
position today	18 (2 pts)	2 (14 pts)
points off 1st	12	0
points off top 4	12	in top 4
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 5 off 15th	8
matches left (incl. this one)	26	26
simulator impact	30 pp	30 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Didier Digard since 1 Jul 2024 · 75 matches	Luis Enrique since 5 Jul 2023 · 109 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 170 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Le Havre 0-1-4 (n = 5)

	home		away
28 Feb 2026	Le Havre	0–1	PSG
22 Nov 2025	PSG	3–0	Le Havre
19 Apr 2025	PSG	2–1	Le Havre
16 Aug 2024	Le Havre	1–4	PSG
27 Apr 2024	PSG	3–3	Le Havre

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Le Havre AC · winless: 7

		now	longest in our database
Le Havre AC	winless	7	11
Le Havre AC	conceding	3	15
Paris Saint-Germain FC	unbeaten	4	32
Paris Saint-Germain FC	wins in a row	4	10
Paris Saint-Germain FC	scoring	27	27
Paris Saint-Germain FC	conceding	3	7
Paris Saint-Germain FC	both teams score	3	7
Paris Saint-Germain FC	3+ goals	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%