RadarSS Lazio 2–2 AC Milan
Serie A · Matchday 4 · · referee: Matteo Marcenaro (35 matches in our database)
After the match
i
The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.
2–2
No estimate was frozen before this match.
Model estimate
i
The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.
No estimate was frozen before this match.
In three sentences
i
Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.
The away side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The away side travel roughly 480 km. No estimate was frozen before this match.
Side by side at a glance
i
Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.
points rate 63% vs 47%
The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. ● = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.
| Lazio | Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd of 20 · 9 pts ● | 4th of 20 · 7 pts | — |
| Elo rating | 1562 | 1608 ● | — |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WLWWD | — |
| Points rate (last 10) | 63% ● | 47% | 46% |
| Goals scored per match (10) | 1.3 ● | 1.1 | — |
| Goals conceded per match (10) | 1.2 ● | 1.3 | — |
| At venue (10): home team at home, away team away | 57% | 63% | 47% · 45% |
| Both teams score (10) | 4 of 10 | 5 of 10 | 47% |
| 3+ goals in the match (10) | 5 of 10 | 5 of 10 | 47% |
| Days of rest | 4 | 5 | — |
Match radar
i
Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.
Wins: 50% vs 45% · league 38%
LazioMilanleague, year before the match · n = 392
| Lazio | league | Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winswon the match | 50%10 of 2030–70% | 38%294 of 78434–41% | 45%9 of 2026–66% |
| Scoresscored at least once | 65%13 of 2043–82% | 69%541 of 78466–72% | 70%14 of 2048–85% |
| 3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not) | 40%8 of 2022–61% | 47%186 of 39243–52% | 40%8 of 2022–61% |
| Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not) | 40%8 of 2022–61% | 47%183 of 39242–52% | 45%9 of 2026–66% |
| Concedesconceded at least once | 65%13 of 2043–82% | 69%541 of 78466–72% | 70%14 of 2048–85% |
| Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not) | 25%5 of 2011–47% | 29%224 of 78426–32% | 20%4 of 208–42% |
Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.
Form before the match
i
Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.
points, last 5: 12 vs 10
Lazio · Last 5, anywhere n = 5
Milan · Last 5, anywhere n = 5
Lazio · Last 5 at home n = 5
Milan · Last 5 away n = 5
What changed
i
Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.
Points (of 15): 7 → 12 vs 4 → 10
The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.
| Lazio | Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points (of 15) | 7 → 12 ▲ | 4 → 10 ▲ |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 → 1.2 ▼ | 0.6 → 1.6 ▲ |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 → 0.8 ▼ | 1.6 → 1.0 ▼ |
| Average Elo of the opponents | 1562 → 1504 easier opponents | 1509 → 1489 easier opponents |
| Elo over the last 5 matches | +11 (1562) | +4 (1608) |
Context
i
Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.
rest days: 4 vs 5
| Lazio | Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| days since last match | 4 | 5 |
| matches in last 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| matches in last 14 days | 2 | 1 |
| position | 3 (9 pts) | 4 (7 pts) |
| points off 1st | 0 | 2 |
| points off top 4 | in top 4 | in top 4 |
| points above bottom 3 | 8 | 6 |
| matches left (incl. this one) | 35 | 35 |
| coach (league matches led before) | Gennaro Gattuso since 23 Jun 2026 · 3 matches | Ruben Amorim since 16 Jun 2026 · 3 matches |
| travel distance (away side) | — | ≈ 480 km |
Weather was not recorded for this match.
no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.
Head-to-head
i
The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.
Lazio 2-1-2 (n = 5)
Lazio 2-1-2 (n = 5)
| home | away | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Lazio | 1–0 | Milan |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Milan | 1–0 | Lazio |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Milan | 1–2 | Lazio |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Lazio | 2–2 | Milan |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Lazio | 0–1 | Milan |
Ongoing streaks
i
Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.
Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20