Genoa CFC 2–1 ACF Fiorentina

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Fabio Maresca (37 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · miss · surprise: 1.17 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

31%1 · Genoa≈ 1 in 3.22

28%X≈ 1 in 3.62

41%2 · Fiorentina≈ 1 in 2.42

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 10 matches. The away side are 2 points above the bottom three with 33 matches left. The model estimates 41% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position19 vs 17

Elo rating1450 vs 1513

Last 5LLLDL homeLLLWD away

Rest days20 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 11% · 0–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 10% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Genoa	Fiorentina	League
League position	19th of 20 · 1 pts	17th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1450	1513	—
Last 5	LLLDL	LLLWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	10%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.4	0.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	33%	53%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	4 of 10	46%
3+ goals in the match (10)	3 of 10	5 of 10	48%
Days of rest	20	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 35% · league 38%

GenoaFiorentinaleague, year before the match · n = 370

	Genoa	league	Fiorentina
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	38%280 of 74034–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	50%10 of 2030–70%	69%512 of 74066–72%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	48%176 of 37043–53%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	46%172 of 37041–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	69%512 of 74066–72%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	10%2 of 203–30%	28%208 of 74025–31%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 1 vs 4

Genoa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLDL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

3:10goals

Fiorentina · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLWD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:12goals

Genoa · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLLD

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

3:11goals

Fiorentina · Last 5 away n = 5

DLWLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:11goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 2 → 1 vs 6 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Genoa	Fiorentina
Points (of 15)	2 → 1 ▼	6 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.2 → 0.6 ▲	0.6 → 1.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 2.0 ▲	1.0 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1544 → 1537 easier opponents	1559 → 1518 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−20 (1450)	−16 (1513)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 20

	Genoa	Fiorentina
days since last match	20	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	19 (1 pts)	17 (4 pts)
points off 1st	12	9
points off top 4	11	8
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 3 off 17th	2
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Daniele De Rossi since 6 Nov 2025 · 33 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 200 km
weather at kick-off	23 °C · 0.0 mm · 11 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Genoa 0-3-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
10 May 2026	Fiorentina	0–0	Genoa
9 Nov 2025	Genoa	2–2	Fiorentina
2 Feb 2025	Fiorentina	2–1	Genoa
31 Oct 2024	Genoa	0–1	Fiorentina
15 Apr 2024	Fiorentina	1–1	Genoa

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Genoa CFC · winless: 10

		now	longest in our database
Genoa CFC	winless	10	10
Genoa CFC	scoring	3	6
Genoa CFC	conceding	7	12
Genoa CFC	both teams score	3	6
ACF Fiorentina	scoring	3	9
ACF Fiorentina	conceding	6	12
ACF Fiorentina	both teams score	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%