ACF Fiorentina 1–3 Como 1907

Serie A · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Marco Di Bello (42 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–3 · hit · surprise: 0.74 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

26%1 · Fiorentina≈ 1 in 3.80

26%X≈ 1 in 3.86

48%2 · Como 1907≈ 1 in 2.09

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 4 matches. The home side last played 8 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 48% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position19 vs 8

Elo rating1508 vs 1598

Last 5LLWDL homeWWWLD away

Rest days8 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 0–1: 11% · 0–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 30% vs 70%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Fiorentina	Como 1907	League
League position	19th of 20 · 4 pts	8th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1508	1598	—
Last 5	LLWDL	WWWLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	30%	70%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.0	1.5	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.9	0.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	67%	49% · 43%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	5 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	48%
Days of rest	8	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 60% · league 38%

FiorentinaComo 1907league, year before the match · n = 385

	Fiorentina	league	Como 1907
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%292 of 77035–41%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	69%535 of 77066–73%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	48%186 of 38543–53%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	47%181 of 38542–52%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	69%535 of 77066–73%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	28%217 of 77025–31%	55%11 of 2034–74%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 10

Fiorentina · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWDL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

7:10goals

Como 1907 · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWLD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:5goals

Fiorentina · Last 5 at home n = 5

DDLLD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

3:7goals

Como 1907 · Last 5 away n = 5

WDWWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

11:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 4 vs 11 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Fiorentina	Como 1907
Points (of 15)	5 → 4 ▼	11 → 10 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.6 → 1.4 ▲	1.4 → 1.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 2.0 ▲	0.4 → 1.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1592 → 1482 easier opponents	1480 → 1530 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−16 (1508)	+6 (1598)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 3

	Fiorentina	Como 1907
days since last match	8	3
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	19 (4 pts)	8 (11 pts)
points off 1st	15	8
points off top 4	9	2
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 0 off 17th	7
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Cesc Fàbregas since 19 Jul 2024 · 82 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 290 km
weather at kick-off	23 °C · 0.0 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Fiorentina 2-0-2 (n = 4)

	home		away
14 Feb 2026	Como 1907	1–2	Fiorentina
21 Sep 2025	Fiorentina	1–2	Como 1907
16 Feb 2025	Fiorentina	0–2	Como 1907
24 Nov 2024	Como 1907	0–2	Fiorentina

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

ACF Fiorentina · scoring: 4

		now	longest in our database
ACF Fiorentina	scoring	4	9
ACF Fiorentina	conceding	7	12
ACF Fiorentina	both teams score	4	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%