Everton FC – Coventry City FC

Premier League · Matchday 10 · 6 Nov 2026 20:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

49%1 · Everton≈ 1 in 2.06

30%X≈ 1 in 3.31

21%2 · Coventry City≈ 1 in 4.70

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side are winless in their last 3 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 49% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position9 vs 19

Elo rating1502 vs 1481

Last 5DWDLL homeLWWLL away

Rest days4 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 14% · 1–1: 14% · 0–0: 12%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 33% vs 25%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Everton	Coventry City	League
League position	9th of 20 · 10 pts	19th of 20 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1502	1481	—
Last 5	DWDLL	LWWLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	33%	25%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.9	0.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	—	49% · 41%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	2 of 8	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	3 of 10	4 of 8	55%
Days of rest	4	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 0.50

	Everton at home	Coventry City away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.25league 1.57	0.50league 1.27
conceded / match	1.00league 1.27	1.75league 1.57
both scored	25%1 of 4 · league 52%	25%1 of 4 · league 52%
3+ goals	25%1 of 4 · league 52%	50%2 of 4 · league 52%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 25%	25%1 of 4 · league 29%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 29%	50%2 of 4 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 25% · league 35%

EvertonCoventry Cityleague, year before the match · n = 355

	Everton	league	Coventry City
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	35%251 of 71032–39%	25%2 of 87–59%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%530 of 71071–78%	38%3 of 814–69%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%194 of 35549–60%	50%4 of 822–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	57%201 of 35551–62%	25%2 of 87–59%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%530 of 71071–78%	88%7 of 853–98%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	29%208 of 71026–33%	12%1 of 82–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 6

Everton · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWDLL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:6goals

Coventry City · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWLL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

6:10goals

Everton · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWDWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:7goals

Coventry City · Last 5 away

not enough data (4 of 5)

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 5 vs not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) Goals scored per match 1.2 → 0.6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Everton	Coventry City
Points (of 15)	5 → 5 =	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 0.6 ▼	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.2 ▼	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Average Elo of the opponents	1514 → 1528 tougher opponents	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Elo over the last 5 matches	−7 (1502)	−8 (1481)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 6

	Everton	Coventry City
days since last match	4	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	9 (10 pts)	19 (6 pts)
points off 1st	11	15
points off top 4	3	7
points above bottom 3	4	bottom 3 · 0 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 150 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

not enough data

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Everton FC · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Everton FC	winless	3	13
Everton FC	conceding	3	8
Coventry City FC	conceding	3	4

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%