Como 1907 0–0 AS Roma

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 10:30 UTC · referee: Michael Fabbri (47 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–0 · miss · surprise: 1.27 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

32%1 · Como 1907≈ 1 in 3.17

28%X≈ 1 in 3.55

40%2 · Roma≈ 1 in 2.48

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 20 matches. The away side travel roughly 510 km. The model estimates 40% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position8 vs 2

Elo rating1598 vs 1648

Last 5DWWWL homeWWWWD away

Rest days20 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 12% · 1–0: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 77% vs 93%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Como 1907	Roma	League
League position	8th of 20 · 10 pts	2nd of 20 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1598	1648	—
Last 5	DWWWL	WWWWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	77%	93%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.7	2.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.7	0.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	67%	53%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	3 of 10	46%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	6 of 10	48%
Days of rest	20	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 65% · league 38%

Como 1907Romaleague, year before the match · n = 373

	Como 1907	league	Roma
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	38%283 of 74635–41%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	69%516 of 74666–72%	100%20 of 2084–100%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	48%179 of 37343–53%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	46%173 of 37341–51%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	69%516 of 74666–72%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	28%211 of 74625–32%	60%12 of 2039–78%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 13

Como 1907 · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

9:6goals

Roma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWD

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

14:3goals

Como 1907 · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLDWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

11:5goals

Roma · Last 5 away n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

13:2goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 13 → 10 vs 15 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Como 1907	Roma
Points (of 15)	13 → 10 ▼	15 → 13 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.8 ▲	2.6 → 2.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.2 → 1.2 ▲	0.4 → 0.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1480 → 1497 tougher opponents	1491 → 1555 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1598)	+20 (1648)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 21

	Como 1907	Roma
days since last match	20	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	8 (10 pts)	2 (13 pts)
points off 1st	6	3
points off top 4	2	in top 4
points above bottom 3	6	9
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Cesc Fàbregas since 19 Jul 2024 · 81 matches	Gian Piero Gasperini since 6 Jun 2025 · 43 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 510 km
weather at kick-off	19 °C · 0.0 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Como 1907 2-0-2 (n = 4)

	home		away
15 Mar 2026	Como 1907	2–1	Roma
15 Dec 2025	Roma	1–0	Como 1907
2 Mar 2025	Roma	2–1	Como 1907
15 Dec 2024	Como 1907	2–0	Roma

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Como 1907 · conceding: 6

		now	longest in our database
Como 1907	conceding	6	15
AS Roma	unbeaten	12	19
AS Roma	scoring	20	24

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%