Bologna FC 1909 1–3 FC Internazionale Milano

Serie A · Matchday 7 · 17 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC · referee: Daniele Doveri (56 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–3 · hit · surprise: 0.52 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

19%1 · Bologna≈ 1 in 5.19

21%X≈ 1 in 4.75

60%2 · Inter≈ 1 in 1.68

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 16 matches. The home side last played 6 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 60% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position14 vs 1

Elo rating1537 vs 1738

Last 5LDLDW homeWWWDW away

Rest days6 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 1–2: 10% · 0–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	4%	2%	1%
2	3%	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 43% vs 80%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Bologna	Inter	League
League position	14th of 20 · 5 pts	1st of 20 · 16 pts	—
Elo rating	1537	1738	—
Last 5	LDLDW	WWWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	43%	80%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	2.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.2	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	33%	63%	49% · 43%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	6 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	48%
Days of rest	6	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 65% · league 38%

BolognaInterleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Bologna	league	Inter
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	38%289 of 76434–41%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	70%531 of 76466–73%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	48%184 of 38243–53%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	47%180 of 38242–52%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	70%531 of 76466–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	28%216 of 76425–32%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 13

Bologna · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLDW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

5:6goals

Inter · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWDW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

14:7goals

Bologna · Last 5 at home n = 5

DDLDD

4pts

0-4-1W-D-L

6:7goals

Inter · Last 5 away n = 5

DWDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

11:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 5 vs 11 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Bologna	Inter
Points (of 15)	8 → 5 ▼	11 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.0 ▼	2.6 → 2.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.2 =	1.0 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1590 → 1516 easier opponents	1463 → 1531 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−6 (1537)	+9 (1738)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 3

	Bologna	Inter
days since last match	6	3
matches in last 7 days	1	2
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	14 (5 pts)	1 (16 pts)
points off 1st	11	0
points off top 4	8	in top 4
points above bottom 3	1	12
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Cristian Chivu since 9 Jun 2025 · 44 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 200 km
weather at kick-off	21 °C · 0.0 mm · 9 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Bologna 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
23 May 2026	Bologna	3–3	Inter
4 Jan 2026	Inter	3–1	Bologna
20 Apr 2025	Bologna	1–0	Inter
15 Jan 2025	Inter	2–2	Bologna
9 Mar 2024	Bologna	0–1	Inter

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Bologna FC 1909 · conceding: 7

		now	longest in our database
Bologna FC 1909	conceding	7	13
FC Internazionale Milano	unbeaten	16	28
FC Internazionale Milano	scoring	16	34
FC Internazionale Milano	3+ goals	4	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	4%	2%	1%
2	3%	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	4%	2%	1%
2	3%	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	4%	2%	1%
2	3%	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%