RadarFC Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · · Derby
Model estimate
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The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.
provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?
In three sentences
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Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.
As of today, the home side are unbeaten in their last 21 matches. The away side travel roughly 470 km. The model estimates 66% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).
Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 0.
Most likely scores
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The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.
2–1: 9% · 1–1: 8% · 2–0: 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1 | 6% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 2%.
Side by side at a glance
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Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.
points rate 80% vs 77%
The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. ● = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.
| Bayern | Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd of 18 · 14 pts | 1st of 18 · 17 pts ● | — |
| Elo rating | 1766 ● | 1656 | — |
| Last 5 | DWWDW | WWDDW | — |
| Points rate (last 10) | 80% ● | 77% | 46% |
| Goals scored per match (10) | 3.5 ● | 1.7 | — |
| Goals conceded per match (10) | 1.2 | 0.7 ● | — |
| At venue (10): home team at home, away team away | 93% | 67% | 54% · 38% |
| Both teams score (10) | 7 of 10 | 3 of 10 | 63% |
| 3+ goals in the match (10) | 8 of 10 | 4 of 10 | 65% |
| Days of rest | 6 | 7 | — |
Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3
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The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.
scored / match: 6.00 vs 1.33
| Bayern at home | Dortmund away | |
|---|---|---|
| matches | 3 | 3 |
| scored / match | 6.00league 2.20 | 1.33league 1.36 |
| conceded / match | 0.67league 1.36 | 0.67league 2.20 |
| both scored | 67%2 of 3 · league 57% | 33%1 of 3 · league 57% |
| 3+ goals | 100%3 of 3 · league 70% | 33%1 of 3 · league 70% |
| clean sheet | 33%1 of 3 · league 34% | 67%2 of 3 · league 16% |
| failed to score | 0%0 of 3 · league 16% | 33%1 of 3 · league 34% |
Match radar
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Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.
Wins: 80% vs 65% · league 37%
BayernDortmundleague, year before the match · n = 295
| Bayern | league | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winswon the match | 80%16 of 2058–92% | 37%220 of 59033–41% | 65%13 of 2043–82% |
| Scoresscored at least once | 95%19 of 2076–99% | 79%467 of 59076–82% | 85%17 of 2064–95% |
| 3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not) | 85%17 of 2064–95% | 65%193 of 29560–71% | 55%11 of 2034–74% |
| Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not) | 70%14 of 2048–85% | 63%186 of 29557–68% | 40%8 of 2022–61% |
| Concedesconceded at least once | 70%14 of 2048–85% | 79%467 of 59076–82% | 50%10 of 2030–70% |
| Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not) | 60%12 of 2039–78% | 32%187 of 59028–36% | 40%8 of 2022–61% |
Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.
Form before the match
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Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.
points, last 5: 11 vs 11
Bayern · Last 5, anywhere n = 5
Dortmund · Last 5, anywhere n = 5
Bayern · Last 5 at home n = 5
Dortmund · Last 5 away n = 5
What changed
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Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.
Points (of 15): 13 → 11 vs 12 → 11
The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.
| Bayern | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Points (of 15) | 13 → 11 ▼ | 12 → 11 ▼ |
| Goals scored per match | 3.6 → 3.4 ▼ | 2.0 → 1.4 ▼ |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 → 0.8 ▼ | 1.0 → 0.4 ▼ |
| Average Elo of the opponents | 1473 → 1503 tougher opponents | 1490 → 1503 tougher opponents |
| Elo over the last 5 matches | +3 (1766) | +6 (1656) |
Context
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Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.
rest days: 6 vs 7
| Bayern | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| days since last match | 6 | 7 |
| matches in last 7 days | 1 | 0 |
| matches in last 14 days | 2 | 2 |
| position today | 2 (14 pts) | 1 (17 pts) |
| points off 1st | 3 | 0 |
| points off top 4 | in top 4 | in top 4 |
| points above bottom 3 | 8 | 11 |
| matches left (incl. this one) | 27 | 27 |
| simulator impact | 17 pp | 17 pp |
| coach (league matches led before) | Vincent Kompany since 1 Jul 2024 · 74 matches | Niko Kovač since 30 Jan 2025 · 56 matches |
| travel distance (away side) | — | ≈ 470 km |
Derby: Der Klassiker.
Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.
no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.
Head-to-head
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The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.
Bayern 2-2-1 (n = 5)
Bayern 2-2-1 (n = 5)
| home | away | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Dortmund | 2–3 | Bayern |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Bayern | 2–1 | Dortmund |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Bayern | 2–2 | Dortmund |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Dortmund | 1–1 | Bayern |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Bayern | 0–2 | Dortmund |
Ongoing streaks
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Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.
FC Bayern München · unbeaten: 21
| now | longest in our database | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München | unbeaten | 21 | 27 |
| FC Bayern München | scoring | 4 | 47 |
| FC Bayern München | 3+ goals | 4 | 26 |
| Borussia Dortmund | unbeaten | 9 | 16 |
Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20