Atalanta BC – Parma Calcio 1913

Serie A · Matchday 10 · 2 Nov 2026 19:45 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

64%1 · Atalanta≈ 1 in 1.56

23%X≈ 1 in 4.43

13%2 · Parma≈ 1 in 7.52

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side are winless in their last 3 matches. The home side are 5 points above the bottom three with 31 matches left. The model estimates 64% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position11 vs 16

Elo rating1596 vs 1438

Last 5LLLWL homeLWLLL away

Rest days4 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 15% · 2–0: 14% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 43% vs 23%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Atalanta	Parma	League
League position	11th of 20 · 9 pts	16th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1596	1438	—
Last 5	LLLWL	LWLLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	43%	23%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	0.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	17%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	50%
Days of rest	4	5	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.75 vs 0.50

	Atalanta at home	Parma away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.75league 1.59	0.50league 1.41
conceded / match	1.00league 1.41	2.25league 1.59
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 57%	50%2 of 4 · league 57%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	75%3 of 4 · league 60%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 4 · league 21%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 21%	50%2 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 20% · league 39%

AtalantaParmaleague, year before the match · n = 358

	Atalanta	league	Parma
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	39%279 of 71635–43%	20%4 of 208–42%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%503 of 71667–73%	60%12 of 2039–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	50%178 of 35845–55%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	47%168 of 35842–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%503 of 71667–73%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	29%207 of 71626–32%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 3 vs 3

Atalanta · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLWL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

7:10goals

Parma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

4:11goals

Atalanta · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

7:5goals

Parma · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLLL

0pts

0-0-5W-D-L

2:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 3 vs 4 → 3

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Atalanta	Parma
Points (of 15)	10 → 3 ▼	4 → 3 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	0.4 → 0.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 2.0 ▲	1.0 → 2.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1536 → 1545 tougher opponents	1495 → 1570 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−19 (1596)	−12 (1438)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 5

	Atalanta	Parma
days since last match	4	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	11 (9 pts)	16 (4 pts)
points off 1st	13	18
points off top 4	8	13
points above bottom 3	5	0
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Maurizio Sarri since 15 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 110 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Atalanta 2-1-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
25 Jan 2026	Atalanta	4–0	Parma
30 Aug 2025	Parma	1–1	Atalanta
25 May 2025	Atalanta	2–3	Parma
23 Nov 2024	Parma	1–3	Atalanta

All 4 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Atalanta BC · conceding: 5

		now	longest in our database
Atalanta BC	conceding	5	7
Parma Calcio 1913	winless	3	9
Parma Calcio 1913	conceding	8	11
Parma Calcio 1913	3+ goals	5	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%