RadarLa Liga · Season simulator
Estimate based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 286 matches, using the model's current team strengths. It does not account for transfers or future injuries.
2026-27 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17 · seed 1792912621
Each row is a team. We played out all remaining matches on a computer 10,000 times, with the model's current strengths; the percentages say in how many of those 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished 1st, in the top 4 and so on. “Expected pts” = average final points, “Mean pos.” = average final place.
| Team | Pts now | Exp. pts | Avg. pos | 1st | Top 4 | Top 6 | Bottom 3 | Finishing position distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 27 | 95.9 | 1.1 | 95%≈ 1 in 1.05 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | |
| Real Madrid CF | 21 | 81.2 | 2.3 | 4%≈ 1 in 25.77 | 99%≈ 1 in 1.01 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | |
| Club Atlético de Madrid | 25 | 76.5 | 2.9 | 1%≈ 1 in 94.34 | 97%≈ 1 in 1.03 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | |
| Real Betis Balompié | 19 | 65.9 | 4.5 | <1% | 63%≈ 1 in 1.59 | 92%≈ 1 in 1.08 | 0% | |
| Villarreal CF | 12 | 59.4 | 6.0 | 0% | 21%≈ 1 in 4.83 | 70%≈ 1 in 1.43 | <1% | |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 16 | 56.2 | 7.3 | 0% | 10%≈ 1 in 10.32 | 48%≈ 1 in 2.08 | <1% | |
| RC Celta de Vigo | 11 | 50.9 | 9.4 | 0% | 3%≈ 1 in 35.84 | 20%≈ 1 in 4.94 | 2%≈ 1 in 63.69 | |
| Sevilla FC | 14 | 50.9 | 9.6 | 0% | 2%≈ 1 in 40.49 | 19%≈ 1 in 5.21 | 2%≈ 1 in 57.47 | |
| Athletic Club | 9 | 48.7 | 10.6 | 0% | 2%≈ 1 in 61.35 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.18 | 4%≈ 1 in 27.32 | |
| Elche CF | 10 | 48.3 | 10.9 | 0% | 1%≈ 1 in 98.04 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.35 | 3%≈ 1 in 31.15 | |
| Levante UD | 10 | 47.1 | 11.5 | 0% | 1%≈ 1 in 156 | 8%≈ 1 in 12.55 | 5%≈ 1 in 18.38 | |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 47.0 | 11.5 | 0% | 1%≈ 1 in 167 | 8%≈ 1 in 13.18 | 5%≈ 1 in 18.83 | |
| Deportivo Alavés | 12 | 45.4 | 12.3 | 0% | <1% | 5%≈ 1 in 20.33 | 8%≈ 1 in 12.84 | |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9 | 44.1 | 13.2 | 0% | <1% | 3%≈ 1 in 31.15 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.07 | |
| CA Osasuna | 11 | 42.9 | 14.0 | 0% | <1% | 2%≈ 1 in 48.54 | 17%≈ 1 in 5.75 | |
| Getafe CF | 9 | 40.7 | 15.0 | 0% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 115 | 25%≈ 1 in 3.99 | |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 8 | 39.9 | 15.3 | 0% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 161 | 29%≈ 1 in 3.44 | |
| Valencia CF | 6 | 37.6 | 16.4 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 44%≈ 1 in 2.28 | |
| Real Racing Club de Santander | 11 | 36.8 | 16.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 53%≈ 1 in 1.90 | |
| Málaga CF | 5 | 28.9 | 19.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91%≈ 1 in 1.10 |
(s) = short history: fewer than 8 matches in the model window, strengths shrunk toward the league average. Ties inside a simulation are broken by points, goal difference, goals scored, then at random. How good is the model?
European places 2027/28 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17
Which place in next season's European competitions the final league position gives, according to UEFA's access list (still provisional). The percentage says in how many of the 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished in a position that gives that place; “any European competition” adds them up. Two routes we cannot know yet are left out: the national cup winner (if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table) and the two extra Champions League places for the two best countries in the current European season (EPS). Where the Champions League places are simply the top of the table, the column matches the one in the table above.
| Team | Champions Leagueleague phase · places 1–4 | Europa Leagueleague phase · 5th place | Conference Leagueplay-off · 6th place | Any European competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barça | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | 0% | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 |
| Real Madrid | 99%≈ 1 in 1.01 | <1% | <1% | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 |
| Atleti | 97%≈ 1 in 1.03 | 2%≈ 1 in 48.54 | 1%≈ 1 in 196 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 |
| Real Betis | 63%≈ 1 in 1.59 | 21%≈ 1 in 4.84 | 9%≈ 1 in 11.57 | 92%≈ 1 in 1.08 |
| Villarreal | 21%≈ 1 in 4.83 | 30%≈ 1 in 3.32 | 19%≈ 1 in 5.22 | 70%≈ 1 in 1.43 |
| Real Sociedad | 10%≈ 1 in 10.32 | 19%≈ 1 in 5.32 | 20%≈ 1 in 5.11 | 48%≈ 1 in 2.08 |
| Celta | 3%≈ 1 in 35.84 | 7%≈ 1 in 15.36 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.13 | 20%≈ 1 in 4.94 |
| Sevilla FC | 2%≈ 1 in 40.49 | 6%≈ 1 in 15.70 | 10%≈ 1 in 9.65 | 19%≈ 1 in 5.21 |
| Athletic | 2%≈ 1 in 61.35 | 4%≈ 1 in 25.06 | 7%≈ 1 in 15.13 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.18 |
| Elche | 1%≈ 1 in 98.04 | 3%≈ 1 in 31.95 | 7%≈ 1 in 15.27 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.35 |
| Levante | 1%≈ 1 in 156 | 2%≈ 1 in 41.49 | 5%≈ 1 in 20.33 | 8%≈ 1 in 12.55 |
| Deportivo | 1%≈ 1 in 167 | 2%≈ 1 in 46.51 | 5%≈ 1 in 20.66 | 8%≈ 1 in 13.18 |
| Alavés | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 68.03 | 3%≈ 1 in 33.33 | 5%≈ 1 in 20.33 |
| Rayo Vallecano | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 115 | 2%≈ 1 in 49.02 | 3%≈ 1 in 31.15 |
| Osasuna | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 169 | 1%≈ 1 in 70.92 | 2%≈ 1 in 48.54 |
| Getafe | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 152 | 1%≈ 1 in 115 |
| Espanyol | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 161 |
| Valencia | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Santander | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Málaga | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Source: UEFA circular letter No 54/2026 of 9 Sep 2026, access list for the 2027/28 season — provisional; the final version comes before the end of the current European season. The association is ranked 3rd in UEFA's country coefficients (five-season association coefficients at the end of the 2025/26 season, i.e. 2021/22–2025/26). The national cup winner gets a place in the Europa League (league phase); if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table (Europa League regulations, Article 3). Not included: the two extra Champions League places (EPS) for the two best countries in the current European season, known only at its end.
What the next matches change 25 Oct 2026 – 1 Nov 2026 · n = 14
What changes with the result: for every match in the coming days, each team's chances (of 1st place, the top 4 or 6, the bottom 3) if the match ends 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, next to “now”. The figures come from the same 10,000 simulations, split by that match's result; we show the target the result matters most for. “Impact” = by how many percentage points the two teams' chances can move in total; matches are ordered by it.
| Match | Team | Target | now | if 1 | if X | if 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic – Real Sociedad1 Nov 2026 20:00 · impact 42 pp | Athletic | top 6 | 12% | 17% | 10% | 7% |
| Real Sociedad | top 6 | 48% | 41% | 48% | 59% | |
| Celta – Real Betis25 Oct 2026 15:15 · impact 41 pp | Celta | top 6 | 20% | 26% | 18% | 15% |
| Real Betis | top 4 | 63% | 56% | 64% | 72% | |
| Villarreal – Espanyol30 Oct 2026 20:00 · impact 39 pp | Villarreal | top 6 | 70% | 74% | 65% | 59% |
| Espanyol | bottom 3 | 29% | 32% | 26% | 20% | |
| Real Sociedad – Levante25 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 37 pp | Real Sociedad | top 6 | 48% | 54% | 43% | 39% |
| Levante | top 6 | 8% | 5% | 9% | 13% | |
| Real Betis – Málaga31 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 35 pp | Real Betis | top 4 | 63% | 66% | 57% | 53% |
| Málaga | bottom 3 | 91% | 92% | 89% | 82% | |
| Getafe – Sevilla FC1 Nov 2026 13:00 · impact 32 pp | Getafe | bottom 3 | 25% | 18% | 27% | 32% |
| Sevilla FC | top 6 | 19% | 15% | 19% | 25% | |
| Elche – Valencia1 Nov 2026 17:30 · impact 31 pp | Elche | top 6 | 11% | 14% | 8% | 6% |
| Valencia | bottom 3 | 44% | 48% | 44% | 33% | |
| Athletic – Getafe25 Oct 2026 13:00 · impact 31 pp | Athletic | top 6 | 12% | 16% | 10% | 8% |
| Getafe | bottom 3 | 25% | 29% | 24% | 17% | |
| Rayo Vallecano – Celta31 Oct 2026 15:15 · impact 31 pp | Rayo Vallecano | bottom 3 | 12% | 8% | 13% | 17% |
| Celta | top 6 | 20% | 16% | 17% | 27% | |
| Sevilla FC – Osasuna26 Oct 2026 20:00 · impact 28 pp | Sevilla FC | top 6 | 19% | 23% | 16% | 15% |
| Osasuna | bottom 3 | 17% | 21% | 17% | 10% | |
| Santander – Real Madrid1 Nov 2026 15:15 · impact 24 pp | Santander | bottom 3 | 53% | 38% | 50% | 56% |
| Real Madrid | 1st place | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% | |
| Levante – Atleti31 Oct 2026 13:00 · impact 18 pp | Levante | top 6 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 6% |
| Atleti | top 4 | 97% | 96% | 97% | 98% | |
| Barça – Alavés31 Oct 2026 20:00 · impact 18 pp | Barça | 1st place | 95% | 96% | 93% | 90% |
| Alavés | top 6 | 5% | 4% | 7% | 10% | |
| Barça – Real Madrid25 Oct 2026 20:00 · impact 14 pp | Barça | 1st place | 95% | 97% | 94% | 90% |
| Real Madrid | 1st place | 4% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
The round in scenarios
You choose the results of the coming matches (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win), or choose nothing. The table shows the standings on points if that happens (goal difference stays as it is now, since there are no scores) and, out of the 10,000 simulations, only those in which your scenario occurred: in how many each team finished 1st, in the top 4 or 6, in the bottom 3. Nothing is pre-selected and nothing is a recommendation.
…
How the chances moved n = 8
Title chances of the top 6 teams at the latest runs. Runs happen daily, not only after rounds: between two runs with the same matches played, differences of 1–2 pp are simulation noise, not the effect of results.
| run | Matches played | Barça | Real Madrid | Atleti | Real Betis | Villarreal | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 07:17 | 94 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 06:17 | 94 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 06:05 | 94 | 96% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 05:17 | 94 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 04:17 | 94 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 03:17 | 94 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 02:17 | 94 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 15:17 | 90 | 95% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:17