Valencia CF 0–0 Athletic Club

La Liga · Matchday 9 · 17 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: Adrián Cordero Vega (38 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–0 · miss · surprise: 1.22 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

38%1 · Valencia≈ 1 in 2.63

30%X≈ 1 in 3.37

32%2 · Athletic≈ 1 in 3.09

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. The away side travel roughly 470 km. The model estimates 38% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position19 vs 13

Elo rating1485 vs 1532

Last 5LLWLD homeLWWDD away

Rest days6 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 14% · 1–0: 12% · 0–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Valencia	Athletic	League
League position	19th of 20 · 5 pts	13th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1485	1532	—
Last 5	LLWLD	LWWDD	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	30%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.9	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	37%	33%	56% · 36%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	4 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	3 of 10	52%
Days of rest	6	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 30% · league 38%

ValenciaAthleticleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Valencia	league	Athletic
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%287 of 76434–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	75%576 of 76472–78%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	52%197 of 38247–57%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	56%215 of 38251–61%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%576 of 76472–78%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%212 of 76425–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 8

Valencia · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:11goals

Athletic · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWDD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

6:3goals

Valencia · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Athletic · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

8:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 4 vs 1 → 8

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Valencia	Athletic
Points (of 15)	7 → 4 ▼	1 → 8 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.0 ▼	0.8 → 1.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 2.2 ▲	2.2 → 0.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1568 → 1535 easier opponents	1524 → 1567 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−9 (1485)	+13 (1532)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 7

	Valencia	Athletic
days since last match	6	7
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	19 (5 pts)	13 (8 pts)
points off 1st	19	16
points off top 4	13	10
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 2 off 17th	2
matches left (incl. this one)	30	31
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Edin Terzić since May 2026 · 11 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 470 km
weather at kick-off	21 °C · 0.4 mm · 4 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Valencia 3-0-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
10 May 2026	Athletic	0–1	Valencia
20 Sep 2025	Valencia	2–0	Athletic
18 May 2025	Valencia	0–1	Athletic
28 Aug 2024	Athletic	1–0	Valencia
20 Jan 2024	Valencia	1–0	Athletic

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Valencia CF · scoring: 3

		now	longest in our database
Valencia CF	scoring	3	11
Athletic Club	unbeaten	4	16

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%