Torino FC 2–1 Udinese Calcio

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 12 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Valerio Crezzini (13 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 1.01 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

37%1 · Torino≈ 1 in 2.73

27%X≈ 1 in 3.68

36%2 · Udinese≈ 1 in 2.76

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 3 matches. The away side travel roughly 450 km. The model estimates 37% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position16 vs 15

Elo rating1469 vs 1473

Last 5LLWLD homeDWLLL away

Rest days23 vs 23

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 9% · 1–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 30% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Torino	Udinese	League
League position	16th of 20 · 4 pts	15th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1469	1473	—
Last 5	LLWLD	DWLLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	30%	37%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	1.5	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.7	1.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	47%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	5 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	48%
Days of rest	23	23	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 30% · league 38%

TorinoUdineseleague, year before the match · n = 379

	Torino	league	Udinese
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	38%286 of 75834–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	69%526 of 75866–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	48%182 of 37943–53%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	47%178 of 37942–52%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	69%526 of 75866–73%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	10%2 of 203–30%	28%215 of 75825–32%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 4

Torino · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:8goals

Udinese · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

8:11goals

Torino · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWDLL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

7:9goals

Udinese · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

11:11goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 4 vs 7 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Torino	Udinese
Points (of 15)	5 → 4 ▼	7 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.0 ▼	1.4 → 1.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 1.6 ▼	1.0 → 2.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1545 → 1549 tougher opponents	1509 → 1542 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−6 (1469)	−8 (1473)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 23 vs 23

	Torino	Udinese
days since last match	23	23
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	16 (4 pts)	15 (4 pts)
points off 1st	12	12
points off top 4	9	9
points above bottom 3	0	0
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Ignazio Abate since 12 Jun 2026 · 5 matches	Kosta Runjaić since 1 Jul 2024 · 81 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 450 km
weather at kick-off	18 °C · 0.0 mm · 2 km/h	forecast from 12 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Torino 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
2 May 2026	Udinese	2–0	Torino
7 Jan 2026	Torino	1–2	Udinese
23 Apr 2025	Torino	2–0	Udinese
29 Dec 2024	Udinese	2–2	Torino
16 Mar 2024	Udinese	0–2	Torino

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Torino FC · conceding: 10

		now	longest in our database
Torino FC	conceding	10	10
Udinese Calcio	winless	3	10
Udinese Calcio	conceding	7	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%