US Sassuolo Calcio – SS Lazio

Serie A · Matchday 9 · 27 Oct 2026 17:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

30%1 · Sassuolo≈ 1 in 3.30

26%X≈ 1 in 3.79

43%2 · Lazio≈ 1 in 2.31

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 9 matches. The away side travel roughly 340 km. The model estimates 43% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position14 vs 1

Elo rating1454 vs 1584

Last 5WLDLL homeDWWWW away

Rest days3 vs 2

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 10% · 1–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 27% vs 83%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Sassuolo	Lazio	League
League position	14th of 20 · 8 pts	1st of 20 · 22 pts	—
Elo rating	1454	1584	—
Last 5	WLDLL	DWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	27%	83%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.0	0.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	70%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	5 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	50%
Days of rest	3	2	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.00 vs 2.00

	Sassuolo at home	Lazio away
matches	3	4
scored / match	2.00league 1.59	2.00league 1.41
conceded / match	1.33league 1.41	0.25league 1.59
both scored	100%3 of 3 · league 57%	25%1 of 4 · league 57%
3+ goals	67%2 of 3 · league 60%	50%2 of 4 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 23%	75%3 of 4 · league 21%
failed to score	0%0 of 3 · league 21%	0%0 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 65% · league 39%

SassuoloLazioleague, year before the match · n = 375

	Sassuolo	league	Lazio
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	39%291 of 75035–42%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%526 of 75067–73%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	50%187 of 37545–55%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	47%177 of 37542–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	70%526 of 75067–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	28%211 of 75025–31%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 13

Sassuolo · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

7:11goals

Lazio · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

12:4goals

Sassuolo · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLWWD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:7goals

Lazio · Last 5 away n = 5

LWWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

8:3goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 4 vs 12 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Sassuolo	Lazio
Points (of 15)	4 → 4 =	12 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	1.2 → 2.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 2.2 ▲	0.8 → 0.8 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1496 → 1535 tougher opponents	1504 → 1493 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−8 (1454)	+22 (1584)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 2

	Sassuolo	Lazio
days since last match	3	2
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	14 (8 pts)	1 (22 pts)
points off 1st	14	0
points off top 4	9	in top 4
points above bottom 3	4	18
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
simulator impact	37 pp	37 pp
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Gennaro Gattuso since 23 Jun 2026 · 8 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 340 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 2 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Sassuolo 1-1-2 (n = 4)

	home		away
9 Mar 2026	Lazio	2–1	Sassuolo
14 Sep 2025	Sassuolo	1–0	Lazio
26 May 2024	Lazio	1–1	Sassuolo
21 Oct 2023	Sassuolo	0–2	Lazio

All 4 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

US Sassuolo Calcio · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
US Sassuolo Calcio	winless	4	8
US Sassuolo Calcio	conceding	11	18
SS Lazio	unbeaten	9	9
SS Lazio	wins in a row	4	5
SS Lazio	scoring	9	14
SS Lazio	3+ goals	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%