Real Betis Balompié 5–2 CA Osasuna

La Liga · Matchday 8 · 11 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Carlos Muñiz Muñoz (4 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

5–2 · hit · surprise: 0.48 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

62%1 · Real Betis≈ 1 in 1.61

22%X≈ 1 in 4.51

16%2 · Osasuna≈ 1 in 6.33

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 15 matches. The away side travel roughly 710 km. The model estimates 62% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position4 vs 10

Elo rating1578 vs 1470

Last 5LWWWD homeWLLLD away

Rest days21 vs 22

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 12% · 1–1: 11% · 2–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 73% vs 27%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Real Betis	Osasuna	League
League position	4th of 20 · 16 pts	10th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1578	1470	—
Last 5	LWWWD	WLLLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	73%	27%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	0.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.2	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	17%	56% · 36%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	5 of 10	51%
Days of rest	21	22	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 20% · league 38%

Real BetisOsasunaleague, year before the match · n = 375

	Real Betis	league	Osasuna
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	38%284 of 75034–41%	20%4 of 208–42%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	75%565 of 75072–78%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	51%193 of 37546–56%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%210 of 37551–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%565 of 75072–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	28%209 of 75025–31%	10%2 of 203–30%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 4

Real Betis · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWWD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

7:7goals

Osasuna · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:12goals

Real Betis · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

7:2goals

Osasuna · Last 5 away n = 5

LLWLL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

6:14goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 12 → 10 vs 4 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Real Betis	Osasuna
Points (of 15)	12 → 10 ▼	4 → 4 =
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	0.8 → 0.8 =
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.4 ▲	1.2 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1544 → 1554 tougher opponents	1513 → 1511 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1578)	−17 (1470)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 22

	Real Betis	Osasuna
days since last match	21	22
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	4 (16 pts)	10 (8 pts)
points off 1st	8	16
points off top 4	in top 4	8
points above bottom 3	11	3
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Manuel Pellegrini since 1 Aug 2020 · 121 matches	Luis Miguel Ramis since 10 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 710 km
weather at kick-off	28 °C · 0.0 mm · 7 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Real Betis 3-2-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
12 Apr 2026	Osasuna	1–1	Real Betis
28 Sep 2025	Real Betis	2–0	Osasuna
11 May 2025	Real Betis	1–1	Osasuna
19 Oct 2024	Osasuna	1–2	Real Betis
5 May 2024	Osasuna	0–2	Real Betis

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Real Betis Balompié · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Real Betis Balompié	unbeaten	4	13
Real Betis Balompié	scoring	15	28
CA Osasuna	winless	4	9
CA Osasuna	conceding	4	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%