Parma Calcio 1913 0–3 Torino FC

Serie A · Matchday 7 · 19 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Giovanni Ayroldi (31 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–3 · hit · surprise: 1.00 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

34%1 · Parma≈ 1 in 2.98

30%X≈ 1 in 3.36

37%2 · Torino≈ 1 in 2.72

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 4 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 7 from their last 5. The home side last played 9 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 37% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position15 vs 13

Elo rating1450 vs 1474

Last 5LDLWL homeLWLDW away

Rest days9 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 14% · 0–1: 12% · 1–0: 12%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 23% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Parma	Torino	League
League position	15th of 20 · 4 pts	13th of 20 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1450	1474	—
Last 5	LDLWL	LWLDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	23%	37%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.7	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	27%	49% · 43%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	8 of 10	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	50%
Days of rest	9	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 35% · league 38%

ParmaTorinoleague, year before the match · n = 381

	Parma	league	Torino
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	38%292 of 76235–42%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	70%537 of 76267–74%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	50%190 of 38145–55%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	48%183 of 38143–53%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	70%537 of 76267–74%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%217 of 76225–32%	5%1 of 201–24%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 7

Parma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:9goals

Torino · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:7goals

Parma · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:6goals

Torino · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLWD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:8goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 3 → 4 vs 4 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Parma	Torino
Points (of 15)	3 → 4 ▲	4 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	0.6 → 0.8 ▲	1.2 → 1.2 =
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.8 ▲	1.8 → 1.4 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1564 → 1558 easier opponents	1519 → 1523 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−5 (1450)	+3 (1474)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 9 vs 7

	Parma	Torino
days since last match	9	7
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	15 (4 pts)	13 (7 pts)
points off 1st	15	12
points off top 4	11	8
points above bottom 3	0	3
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Ignazio Abate since 12 Jun 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 210 km
weather at kick-off	18 °C · 0.0 mm · 4 km/h	forecast from 19 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Parma 1-2-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
13 Mar 2026	Torino	4–1	Parma
29 Sep 2025	Parma	2–1	Torino
8 Mar 2025	Parma	2–2	Torino
5 Jan 2025	Torino	0–0	Parma

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Parma Calcio 1913 · conceding: 6

		now	longest in our database
Parma Calcio 1913	conceding	6	11
Parma Calcio 1913	3+ goals	3	7
Torino FC	conceding	11	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%