Málaga CF 2–5 Real Sociedad de Fútbol

La Liga · Matchday 9 · 18 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Luis Bestard Servera (4 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–5 · hit · surprise: 0.91 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

32%1 · Málaga≈ 1 in 3.15

28%X≈ 1 in 3.56

40%2 · Real Sociedad≈ 1 in 2.49

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 8 matches. The away side travel roughly 760 km. The model estimates 40% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position20 vs 6

Elo rating1480 vs 1504

Last 5DDLLD homeDWLWW away

Rest days8 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 10% · 0–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 17% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Málaga	Real Sociedad	League
League position	20th of 20 · 4 pts	6th of 20 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1480	1504	—
Last 5	DDLLD	DWLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	17%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.5	1.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	2.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	—	30%	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 8	7 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	2 of 8	7 of 10	51%
Days of rest	8	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 0% vs 30% · league 37%

MálagaReal Sociedadleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Málaga	league	Real Sociedad
Winswon the match	0%0 of 80–32%	37%286 of 76434–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	50%4 of 822–78%	75%574 of 76472–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%2 of 87–59%	51%196 of 38246–56%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%4 of 822–78%	56%214 of 38251–61%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	88%7 of 853–98%	75%574 of 76472–78%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	0%0 of 80–32%	28%212 of 76425–31%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 3 vs 10

Málaga · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDLLD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

3:6goals

Real Sociedad · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWLWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

9:9goals

Málaga · Last 5 at home

not enough data (4 of 5)

Real Sociedad · Last 5 away n = 5

DLLWW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) 4 → 10 vs not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) 1.4 → 1.8

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Málaga	Real Sociedad
Points (of 15)	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	4 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1.4 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	2.2 → 1.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	not enough data (8 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1543 → 1520 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−12 (1480)	+8 (1504)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 7

	Málaga	Real Sociedad
days since last match	8	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	20 (4 pts)	6 (13 pts)
points off 1st	23	14
points off top 4	14	5
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 3 off 17th	6
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Juan Francisco Funes Arjona since Nov 2025 · 8 matches	Pellegrino Matarazzo since 20 Dec 2025 · 30 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 760 km
weather at kick-off	22 °C · 0.0 mm · 5 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

not enough data

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Málaga CF · winless: 8

		now	longest in our database
Málaga CF	winless	8	8
Málaga CF	conceding	4	4
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	conceding	4	19
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	3+ goals	4	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%