Levante UD 3–3 Sevilla FC

La Liga · Matchday 8 · 12 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: Adrián Cordero Vega (38 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–3 · miss · surprise: 1.38 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

47%1 · Levante≈ 1 in 2.14

25%X≈ 1 in 3.96

28%2 · Sevilla FC≈ 1 in 3.58

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 7 matches. The away side travel roughly 540 km. The model estimates 47% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position18 vs 5

Elo rating1481 vs 1469

Last 5DWDLL homeLDWWL away

Rest days22 vs 23

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–0: 9% · 2–1: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 53%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Levante	Sevilla FC	League
League position	18th of 20 · 5 pts	5th of 20 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1481	1469	—
Last 5	DWDLL	LDWWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	53%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.7	1.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	37%	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	5 of 10	52%
Days of rest	22	23	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 40% · league 38%

LevanteSevilla FCleague, year before the match · n = 377

	Levante	league	Sevilla FC
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%285 of 75434–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%569 of 75472–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	52%195 of 37747–57%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	56%212 of 37751–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	75%569 of 75472–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%210 of 75425–31%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Levante · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWDLL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

8:9goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDWWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

5:7goals

Levante · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

14:8goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWDW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 5 vs 9 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Levante	Sevilla FC
Points (of 15)	9 → 5 ▼	9 → 7 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.6 ▼	1.6 → 1.0 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 1.8 =	1.2 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1505 → 1578 tougher opponents	1574 → 1571 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1481)	+4 (1469)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 22 vs 23

	Levante	Sevilla FC
days since last match	22	23
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	18 (5 pts)	5 (13 pts)
points off 1st	19	11
points off top 4	13	5
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th	8
matches left (incl. this one)	32	31
coach (league matches led before)	Luís Manuel Ferreira de Castro since 20 Dec 2025 · 29 matches	Luis García Plaza since 25 Mar 2026 · 16 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 540 km
weather at kick-off	23 °C · 0.0 mm · 3 km/h	forecast from 12 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Levante 2-0-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
23 Apr 2026	Levante	2–0	Sevilla FC
4 Jan 2026	Sevilla FC	0–3	Levante

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Levante UD · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Levante UD	winless	3	8
Sevilla FC	scoring	7	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%