Levante UD 3–1 Athletic Club

La Liga · Matchday 6 · 21 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC · referee: Alejandro Quintero González (41 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–1 · hit · surprise: 0.89 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

41%1 · Levante≈ 1 in 2.45

28%X≈ 1 in 3.61

31%2 · Athletic≈ 1 in 3.19

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 5 matches. The away side travel roughly 470 km. The model estimates 41% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position17 vs 13

Elo rating1481 vs 1532

Last 5DLLDD homeWWDDD away

Rest days4 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 10% · 2–1: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 33% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Levante	Athletic	League
League position	17th of 20 · 7 pts	13th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1481	1532	—
Last 5	DLLDD	WWDDD	—
Points rate (last 10)	33%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	77%	27%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	3 of 10	52%
Days of rest	4	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 25% · league 38%

LevanteAthleticleague, year before the match · n = 378

	Levante	league	Athletic
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%285 of 75634–41%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%573 of 75673–79%	60%12 of 2039–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	52%196 of 37847–57%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	57%215 of 37852–62%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	76%573 of 75673–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%212 of 75625–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 3 vs 9

Levante · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLLDD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

7:11goals

Athletic · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDDD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

6:1goals

Levante · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWLD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

15:11goals

Athletic · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLWD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:8goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 3 vs 1 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Levante	Athletic
Points (of 15)	7 → 3 ▼	1 → 9 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.4 ▼	0.8 → 1.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 2.2 ▲	2.4 → 0.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1511 → 1562 tougher opponents	1576 → 1515 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−7 (1481)	+16 (1532)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 3

	Levante	Athletic
days since last match	4	3
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position	17 (7 pts)	13 (9 pts)
points off 1st	20	18
points off top 4	12	10
points above bottom 3	0	2
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Luís Manuel Ferreira de Castro since 20 Dec 2025 · 31 matches	Edin Terzić since May 2026 · 12 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 470 km
weather at kick-off	21 °C · 0.0 mm · 6 km/h	forecast from 21 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Levante 0-0-2 (n = 2)

	home		away
8 Feb 2026	Athletic	4–2	Levante
29 Nov 2025	Levante	0–2	Athletic

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Levante UD · winless: 5

		now	longest in our database
Levante UD	winless	5	8
Levante UD	scoring	4	5
Levante UD	conceding	4	8
Levante UD	both teams score	4	4
Athletic Club	unbeaten	5	16
Athletic Club	winless	3	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%