FC Internazionale Milano 3–0 Parma Calcio 1913

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC · referee: Kevin Bonacina (19 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–0 · hit · surprise: 0.27 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

76%1 · Inter≈ 1 in 1.31

15%X≈ 1 in 6.52

8%2 · Parma≈ 1 in 12.11

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 15 matches. The home side are 2nd, level on points with the leaders, with 33 matches left. The model estimates 76% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position2 vs 15

Elo rating1735 vs 1452

Last 5WWWWD homeLLDLW away

Rest days21 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–0: 13% · 3–0: 11% · 1–0: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 73% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Inter	Parma	League
League position	2nd of 20 · 13 pts	15th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1735	1452	—
Last 5	WWWWD	LLDLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	73%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.6	0.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	87%	37%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	3 of 10	48%
Days of rest	21	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 65% vs 35% · league 38%

InterParmaleague, year before the match · n = 371

	Inter	league	Parma
Winswon the match	65%13 of 2043–82%	38%281 of 74234–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	69%514 of 74266–72%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	48%177 of 37143–53%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	47%173 of 37142–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	69%514 of 74266–72%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	28%209 of 74225–32%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 13 vs 4

Inter · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWD

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

15:8goals

Parma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:7goals

Inter · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

15:7goals

Parma · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLLL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

2:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 13 vs 6 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Inter	Parma
Points (of 15)	9 → 13 ▲	6 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.2 → 3.0 ▲	0.8 → 0.8 =
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.6 ▲	1.2 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1483 → 1515 tougher opponents	1562 → 1498 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+8 (1735)	−9 (1452)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 20

	Inter	Parma
days since last match	21	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	2 (13 pts)	15 (4 pts)
points off 1st	0	9
points off top 4	in top 4	8
points above bottom 3	11	2
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Cristian Chivu since 9 Jun 2025 · 43 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 120 km
weather at kick-off	20 °C · 0.0 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Inter 3-1-0 (n = 4)

	home		away
3 May 2026	Inter	2–0	Parma
7 Jan 2026	Parma	0–2	Inter
5 Apr 2025	Parma	2–2	Inter
6 Dec 2024	Inter	3–1	Parma

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

FC Internazionale Milano · unbeaten: 15

		now	longest in our database
FC Internazionale Milano	unbeaten	15	28
FC Internazionale Milano	scoring	15	34
FC Internazionale Milano	conceding	3	5
FC Internazionale Milano	both teams score	3	4
FC Internazionale Milano	3+ goals	3	5
Parma Calcio 1913	scoring	3	6
Parma Calcio 1913	conceding	5	11
Parma Calcio 1913	both teams score	3	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%