Getafe CF – Sevilla FC

La Liga · Matchday 11 · 1 Nov 2026 13:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

37%1 · Getafe≈ 1 in 2.72

35%X≈ 1 in 2.88

29%2 · Sevilla FC≈ 1 in 3.50

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side have scored in each of their last 9 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 5 days ago. The model estimates 37% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position15 vs 6

Elo rating1474 vs 1467

Last 5DLWLD homeWWLDL away

Rest days7 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–0: 18% · 1–0: 16% · 1–1: 14%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	18%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Getafe	Sevilla FC	League
League position	15th of 20 · 9 pts	6th of 20 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1474	1467	—
Last 5	DLWLD	WWLDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.6	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.1	1.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	60%	37%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	2 of 10	6 of 10	52%
Days of rest	7	5	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 5 · 5

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.00 vs 1.80

	Getafe at home	Sevilla FC away
matches	5	5
scored / match	1.00league 1.69	1.80league 1.35
conceded / match	0.60league 1.35	1.80league 1.69
both scored	60%3 of 5 · league 60%	80%4 of 5 · league 60%
3+ goals	0%0 of 5 · league 56%	60%3 of 5 · league 56%
clean sheet	40%2 of 5 · league 30%	20%1 of 5 · league 19%
failed to score	0%0 of 5 · league 19%	0%0 of 5 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 40% · league 38%

GetafeSevilla FCleague, year before the match · n = 373

	Getafe	league	Sevilla FC
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%281 of 74634–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	50%10 of 2030–70%	76%566 of 74673–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	52%195 of 37347–57%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	57%213 of 37352–62%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	76%566 of 74673–79%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%209 of 74625–31%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Getafe · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWLD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:6goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLDL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:10goals

Getafe · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

5:3goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5 away n = 5

WDWDL

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

9:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 5 vs 7 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Getafe	Sevilla FC
Points (of 15)	7 → 5 ▼	7 → 7 =
Goals scored per match	0.6 → 0.6 =	1.4 → 1.4 =
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.2 ▲	1.4 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1489 → 1568 tougher opponents	1530 → 1592 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−1 (1474)	+6 (1467)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 5

	Getafe	Sevilla FC
days since last match	7	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	15 (9 pts)	6 (14 pts)
points off 1st	18	13
points off top 4	10	5
points above bottom 3	1	6
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
simulator impact	32 pp	32 pp
coach (league matches led before)	José Bordalás since 29 Apr 2023 · 123 matches	Luis García Plaza since 25 Mar 2026 · 18 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 380 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Getafe 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
22 Feb 2026	Getafe	0–1	Sevilla FC
25 Aug 2025	Sevilla FC	1–2	Getafe
1 Feb 2025	Getafe	0–0	Sevilla FC
14 Sep 2024	Sevilla FC	1–0	Getafe
30 Mar 2024	Getafe	0–1	Sevilla FC

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Sevilla FC · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Sevilla FC	winless	3	10
Sevilla FC	scoring	9	11
Sevilla FC	conceding	3	11
Sevilla FC	both teams score	3	7
Sevilla FC	3+ goals	3	4

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	18%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	18%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	18%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	14%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%