Getafe CF 1–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

La Liga · Matchday 9 · 19 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: Jon González Esteban (4 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · hit · surprise: 0.99 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

34%1 · Getafe≈ 1 in 2.95

37%X≈ 1 in 2.70

29%2 · Rayo Vallecano≈ 1 in 3.45

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 14 matches. The away side are 1 point above the bottom three with 30 matches left. The model estimates 37% for a draw (frozen before kick-off).

League position14 vs 13

Elo rating1474 vs 1503

Last 5DDLWL homeLWLWD away

Rest days9 vs 9

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–0: 22% · 1–0: 17% · 0–1: 15%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	15%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	17%	13%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano	League
League position	14th of 20 · 8 pts	13th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1474	1503	—
Last 5	DDLWL	LWLWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	50%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.5	1.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.1	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	67%	30%	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	2 of 10	9 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	2 of 10	6 of 10	52%
Days of rest	9	9	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 40% · league 38%

GetafeRayo Vallecanoleague, year before the match · n = 379

	Getafe	league	Rayo Vallecano
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%286 of 75834–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	50%10 of 2030–70%	75%572 of 75872–78%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	52%196 of 37947–57%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	56%214 of 37951–61%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	75%572 of 75872–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	28%211 of 75825–31%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Getafe · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDLWL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:6goals

Rayo Vallecano · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:13goals

Getafe · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWDDW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

5:2goals

Rayo Vallecano · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

7:13goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 6 → 5 vs 8 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
Points (of 15)	6 → 5 ▼	8 → 7 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.4 → 0.6 ▲	1.4 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.2 ▲	1.0 → 2.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1483 → 1569 tougher opponents	1496 → 1582 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−1 (1474)	+3 (1503)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 9 vs 9

	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
days since last match	9	9
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	14 (8 pts)	13 (8 pts)
points off 1st	19	19
points off top 4	11	11
points above bottom 3	1	1
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	José Bordalás since 29 Apr 2023 · 122 matches	no data
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 10 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 3 km/h	forecast from 19 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Getafe 0-3-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
3 May 2026	Getafe	0–2	Rayo Vallecano
2 Jan 2026	Rayo Vallecano	1–1	Getafe
2 May 2025	Rayo Vallecano	1–0	Getafe
24 Aug 2024	Getafe	0–0	Rayo Vallecano
13 Apr 2024	Rayo Vallecano	0–0	Getafe

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid · scoring: 14

		now	longest in our database
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	scoring	14	14
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	conceding	8	8
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	both teams score	8	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	15%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	17%	13%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	15%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	17%	13%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	15%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	17%	13%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%