Genoa CFC – Juventus FC

Serie A · Matchday 9 · 28 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

19%1 · Genoa≈ 1 in 5.19

26%X≈ 1 in 3.82

55%2 · Juventus≈ 1 in 1.83

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side took 4 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 5 from their last 5. The away side are 7 points above the bottom three with 31 matches left. The model estimates 55% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position17 vs 10

Elo rating1452 vs 1615

Last 5LDLWL homeDLWDL away

Rest days3 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 15% · 1–1: 12% · 0–2: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	15%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 17% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Genoa	Juventus	League
League position	17th of 20 · 4 pts	10th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1452	1615	—
Last 5	LDLWL	DLWDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	17%	50%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.6	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	53%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	4 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	3 of 10	50%
Days of rest	3	3	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.00 vs 1.33

	Genoa at home	Juventus away
matches	4	3
scored / match	1.00league 1.59	1.33league 1.41
conceded / match	2.00league 1.41	1.33league 1.59
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 57%	67%2 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	33%1 of 3 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 23%	33%1 of 3 · league 21%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 21%	0%0 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 45% · league 39%

GenoaJuventusleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Genoa	league	Juventus
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	39%290 of 74835–42%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	50%10 of 2030–70%	70%525 of 74867–73%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	50%187 of 37445–55%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	47%177 of 37442–52%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%525 of 74867–73%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%211 of 74825–32%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 5

Genoa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Juventus · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:8goals

Genoa · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLDW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Juventus · Last 5 away n = 5

WDWLD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 1 → 4 vs 10 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Genoa	Juventus
Points (of 15)	1 → 4 ▲	10 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.2 → 1.0 ▲	1.2 → 1.2 =
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 2.0 ▲	0.8 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1544 → 1533 easier opponents	1459 → 1540 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−10 (1452)	−15 (1615)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 3

	Genoa	Juventus
days since last match	3	3
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	17 (4 pts)	10 (11 pts)
points off 1st	18	11
points off top 4	13	6
points above bottom 3	0	7
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
simulator impact	39 pp	39 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Daniele De Rossi since 6 Nov 2025 · 35 matches	Luciano Spalletti since 30 Oct 2025 · 36 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 130 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Genoa 0-1-4 (n = 5)

	home		away
6 Apr 2026	Juventus	2–0	Genoa
31 Aug 2025	Genoa	0–1	Juventus
29 Mar 2025	Juventus	1–0	Genoa
28 Sep 2024	Genoa	0–3	Juventus
17 Mar 2024	Juventus	0–0	Genoa

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Genoa CFC · conceding: 9

		now	longest in our database
Genoa CFC	conceding	9	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	15%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	15%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	15%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%