RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0–1 Club Atlético de Madrid

La Liga · Matchday 9 · 17 Oct 2026 12:00 UTC · referee: Alejandro Hernández Hernández (56 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–1 · hit · surprise: 0.74 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

26%1 · Espanyol≈ 1 in 3.88

26%X≈ 1 in 3.80

48%2 · Atleti≈ 1 in 2.09

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 12 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 48% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position14 vs 2

Elo rating1469 vs 1639

Last 5DWLLD homeLWWWW away

Rest days7 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 11% · 0–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 73%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Espanyol	Atleti	League
League position	14th of 20 · 8 pts	2nd of 20 · 19 pts	—
Elo rating	1469	1639	—
Last 5	DWLLD	LWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	73%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	33%	50%	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	5 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	8 of 10	52%
Days of rest	7	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 20% vs 60% · league 38%

EspanyolAtletileague, year before the match · n = 379

	Espanyol	league	Atleti
Winswon the match	20%4 of 208–42%	38%285 of 75834–41%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	76%573 of 75872–79%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	52%196 of 37947–57%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%214 of 37951–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%573 of 75872–79%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%211 of 75825–31%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 12

Espanyol · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWLLD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:7goals

Atleti · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

11:5goals

Espanyol · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWLDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

7:7goals

Atleti · Last 5 away n = 5

LWLWW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

9:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 5 vs 10 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Espanyol	Atleti
Points (of 15)	7 → 5 ▼	10 → 12 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.2 ▼	1.8 → 2.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.4 ▲	1.6 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1536 → 1479 easier opponents	1537 (4 of 5) → 1540 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−4 (1469)	+11 (1639)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 3

	Espanyol	Atleti
days since last match	7	3
matches in last 7 days	0	2
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	14 (8 pts)	2 (19 pts)
points off 1st	16	5
points off top 4	10	in top 4
points above bottom 3	2	13
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Manolo González since 12 Mar 2024 · 84 matches	Diego Simeone since 23 Dec 2011 · 122 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 490 km
weather at kick-off	24 °C · 0.0 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Espanyol 1-2-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
21 Feb 2026	Atleti	4–2	Espanyol
17 Aug 2025	Espanyol	2–1	Atleti
29 Mar 2025	Espanyol	1–1	Atleti
28 Aug 2024	Atleti	0–0	Espanyol

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	winless	3	18
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	scoring	12	14
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	conceding	3	13
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	both teams score	3	9
Club Atlético de Madrid	unbeaten	4	13
Club Atlético de Madrid	wins in a row	4	8
Club Atlético de Madrid	scoring	4	17
Club Atlético de Madrid	3+ goals	7	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%