Cagliari Calcio 1–1 Juventus FC

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Matteo Marcenaro (35 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · miss · surprise: 1.34 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

19%1 · Cagliari≈ 1 in 5.23

26%X≈ 1 in 3.83

55%2 · Juventus≈ 1 in 1.83

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The away side travel roughly 670 km. The model estimates 55% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position4 vs 7

Elo rating1458 vs 1628

Last 5WLWWW homeWWDLW away

Rest days22 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 14% · 1–1: 12% · 0–2: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	14%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 73% vs 53%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Cagliari	Juventus	League
League position	4th of 20 · 12 pts	7th of 20 · 10 pts	—
Elo rating	1458	1628	—
Last 5	WLWWW	WWDLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	73%	53%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.8	0.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	60%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	4 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	2 of 10	48%
Days of rest	22	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 45% · league 38%

CagliariJuventusleague, year before the match · n = 377

	Cagliari	league	Juventus
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%285 of 75434–41%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	69%522 of 75466–72%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	48%181 of 37743–53%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	47%176 of 37742–52%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	69%522 of 75466–72%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%213 of 75425–32%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 12 vs 10

Cagliari · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

5:2goals

Juventus · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:4goals

Cagliari · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

6:6goals

Juventus · Last 5 away n = 5

DWDWL

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

6:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 12 vs 6 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Cagliari	Juventus
Points (of 15)	10 → 12 ▲	6 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.0 ▼	0.8 → 1.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 0.4 ▼	1.0 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1545 → 1540 easier opponents	1477 → 1514 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+22 (1458)	+5 (1628)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 22 vs 21

	Cagliari	Juventus
days since last match	22	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	4 (12 pts)	7 (10 pts)
points off 1st	4	6
points off top 4	in top 4	2
points above bottom 3	8	6
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Fabio Pisacane since 11 Jun 2025 · 43 matches	Luciano Spalletti since 30 Oct 2025 · 34 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 670 km
weather at kick-off	22 °C · 0.0 mm · 11 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Cagliari 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
17 Jan 2026	Cagliari	1–0	Juventus
29 Nov 2025	Juventus	2–1	Cagliari
23 Feb 2025	Cagliari	0–1	Juventus
6 Oct 2024	Juventus	1–1	Cagliari
19 Apr 2024	Cagliari	2–2	Juventus

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Cagliari Calcio · unbeaten: 3

		now	longest in our database
Cagliari Calcio	unbeaten	3	4
Cagliari Calcio	wins in a row	3	3
Cagliari Calcio	scoring	3	6
Juventus FC	scoring	6	15

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	14%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	14%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	14%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%