Deportivo Alavés 1–2 Club Atlético de Madrid

La Liga · Matchday 8 · 10 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC · referee: Alejandro Quintero González (41 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–2 · hit · surprise: 0.82 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

29%1 · Alavés≈ 1 in 3.40

27%X≈ 1 in 3.76

44%2 · Atleti≈ 1 in 2.27

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 3 matches. The away side are 5 points off 1st place with 31 matches left. The model estimates 44% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position6 vs 2

Elo rating1478 vs 1635

Last 5WWLLD homeWLWWW away

Rest days21 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 10% · 1–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 73%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Alavés	Atleti	League
League position	6th of 20 · 11 pts	2nd of 20 · 16 pts	—
Elo rating	1478	1635	—
Last 5	WWLLD	WLWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	73%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.8	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	50%	56% · 36%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	5 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	8 of 10	51%
Days of rest	21	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 60% · league 38%

AlavésAtletileague, year before the match · n = 370

	Alavés	league	Atleti
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%280 of 74034–41%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	76%559 of 74072–79%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	51%190 of 37046–56%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%208 of 37051–61%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%559 of 74072–79%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	28%207 of 74025–31%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 12

Alavés · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLLD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:5goals

Atleti · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

12:5goals

Alavés · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWWWL

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

10:5goals

Atleti · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

9:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 7 vs 10 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Alavés	Atleti
Points (of 15)	10 → 7 ▼	10 → 12 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	1.6 → 2.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.6 → 1.0 ▲	1.6 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1537 → 1522 easier opponents	1545 (4 of 5) → 1537 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1478)	+12 (1635)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 20

	Alavés	Atleti
days since last match	21	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	6 (11 pts)	2 (16 pts)
points off 1st	10	5
points off top 4	4	in top 4
points above bottom 3	6	11
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Quique Sánchez Flores since 3 Mar 2026 · 19 matches	Diego Simeone since 23 Dec 2011 · 121 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 280 km
weather at kick-off	20 °C · 0.0 mm · 7 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Alavés 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
18 Jan 2026	Atleti	1–0	Alavés
30 Aug 2025	Alavés	1–1	Atleti
3 May 2025	Alavés	0–0	Atleti
23 Nov 2024	Atleti	2–1	Alavés
21 Apr 2024	Alavés	2–0	Atleti

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Deportivo Alavés · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Deportivo Alavés	winless	3	7
Club Atlético de Madrid	unbeaten	3	13
Club Atlético de Madrid	wins in a row	3	8
Club Atlético de Madrid	scoring	3	17
Club Atlético de Madrid	3+ goals	6	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%